World Cup 2018 - Final Predictions

And then there were two.

Well, in fact there's still four. But Belgium and England are going to play in a meaningless 3/4 place match. Ironically when they first played their group match, it was almost meaningless, and now they are in the bronze medal game, it's the same. Except this time we might get to see their first choice teams battle it out. After my semi final thoughts, I have reached the final maintaining my 100% record of not being 100% in my predictions, so here are my crystal ball musings for the final games.

Belgium vs. England (3/4 place)
Winner: Belgium

I really wanted England to win against Croatia. And they almost did. But suddenly after the equalizer, it seemed as if they just switched off and it was back to 2014 Euro. They just did not have any organization. Kind of how Bangladesh has managed to turn the clock back to the 2000s in their recent campaign in West Indies.

What I said in the semi final still holds.

What England lacks as opposed to France is quality. They have one or two good players but nowhere the quality of France or Belgium.

Sometimes the team that is worse comes out winner in the 3/4 game as the other, better team is so dejected at not playing in the final. But I expect Belgium to be fully focused in the game and make England pay.

France vs. Croatia
Winner: France

I fully expect France to lift the World Cup trophy on Sunday. Their team has just gotten better and better as the tournament progressed. In the semi final game, at the beginning Belgium was ALL OVER France but then France just turned it up a notch and bossed the game. You have to kill off the game when you have your chances, and both losing semi finalists didn't do it. France just gets better as the game goes on, just like Croatia, but their reserves are a better quality. They have the perfect blend of youth, experience, talent, and luck. And they would want to make up for losing the Euro final at home two years ago.

Having said all of this, even if Croatia manages to pull an upset, it will be richly deserved. Croatia was involved in some of the best games this World Cup and I hope the final continues that trend.

World Cup 2018 - Semi Final Predictions

So it has come down to this. After 32 nations, only 4 remain. These 4 teams each have two games left. They will each will play the semi final, and then depending on the result will either play the meaningless third fourth match, or the all important once-in-a-lifetime final.

You can take a look at my quarter final predictions. I correctly managed to predict three out of the four semi finalists. So here are the semi-final lineups.

Belgium vs France
My pick: France

Everyone is talking about Belgium finally fulfilling their promise and being the favourites. Me? I am still not convinced. Brazil had a high number of chances against them and that result could have easily been 5-2 win for Brazil rather than a 2-1 loss. Belgium is weak in the back and France just oozes quality. Sure, Argentina scored 3 against them but no other team has come close. France has just gotten better as the tournament has progressed and I think they will defeat Belgium.

England vs Croatia
My pick: England

What is different about this England team? Not only are they a young team, but compared to previously star studded English teams this bunch seems to actually enjoy the world cup and each other, playing with fun without pressure. We all thought Sweden would give them a tough game but they bossed that game. Sweden hardly ventured out to score, and when they did, they found a resilient goalie in the English nets. When has that happened? What England lacks as opposed to France is quality. They have one or two good players but nowhere the quality of France or Belgium.

Croatia is a good team but their focus is their midfield - which is amazing. They are also a resilient team that somehow has found a way to win. Whenever they went behind they quickly equalized. This is actually a tough game to call. I am going to give it to England just because I am supporting them, so I want to watch the game and cheer on both my team and my blog!

World Cup 2018 - Quarter Final Predictions

So I had a 50% success rate in the Round-of-16 predictions. Which means analysis aside, I could have just flipped a coin - this is s a great example of the science of probability. Now let's get to the last 8 teams standing.

France vs. Uruguay
Winner: France

This is like the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. Offense vs Defence. This is very hard to call as the teams are almost equally matched. France has a great selection of fast, young strikers while Uruguay has a pair of experienced and exceptional strikers. Where Uruguay has the edge is their miserly defenders. Now will France have the key to pick the lock? I think so. They responded well to the pressure of going behind against Argentina with magical strikes. Their confidence must be sky high.

Brazil vs. Belgium
Winner: Brazil

Now I support Brazil. Yet I am afraid of this one team - Belgium. A team that knew that winning their last meaningless group game would land them in the tougher bracket and yet they had the guts to go for it. A team that went behind 2 goals in a knock out game, with 20 minutes to go, and still emerge victorious. A team that is full of talent.

So why Brazil? People forget that their defenders only allowed one goal so far. This is not the Brazil of 2014. They look good and are good (even Neymar's acting skills deserve an Oscar). You need something special to defeat a team like Belgium and I think Brazil has it.

Russia vs. Croatia
Winner: Croatia

Whenever I think of Russia in 2018 I am reminded of South Korea in 2002.  A host nation making an unexpectedly deep run in the tournament, "supported" by the referees and pure luck. Yet I think with the advent of VAR, most of the refereeing in the tournament has been pretty good. So I think Russia's luck will run out against Croatia. Spain really defeated themselves. Passing the ball around (1000 passes!) with no meaningful shots to show for it. Croatia knows how to go for the kill.

England vs. Sweden
Winner: England.

One word (ok two words. New England. This is a different England team. I don't know if the cup's coming home, but I know they look good. Yes they only scored 1 non fluke goal in open play. Yes they are dependent on set pieces and Harry Kane. But luck seems to be smiling on them at the moment.

World Cup 2018 - Round of 16 Predictions

So the group stages are over, and the knockouts begin tomorrow. Before I give my Round-of-16 predictions, let's see how I did over all with my group stage predictions.

Group A (predicted): Uruguay, Egypt; (actual): Uruguay, Russia

To be honest, I made the Egypt prediction before Mo Salah got injured in the Champions League final, so he was a non-factor for Egypt's first game. He managed to score in the games he did play, so one wonders what would happen had he been 100% fit. Then again, Egypt lost to Saudi Arabia. How do you manage to do that? And what the heck happened to Russia?  Home advantage, wow.

Group B (predicted): Portugal, Spain; (actual): Spain, Portugal

I think no one imagined the resistance that Morocco or Iran would provide but in the end you have to score goals. That was their weak point - finishing.

Group C (predicted): France, Peru; (actual): France, Denmark

I had originally said Peru despite Denmark's great strikers, and in the end it would come down to that missed penalty for Peru. Had they scored that, they would have gone through.

Group D (predicted): Argentina, Croatia; (actual): Croatia, Argentina

Hard to believe, but Argentina was as bad in the league stages as they were in qualifying. They only managed to qualify for the knockouts with a last gasp victory. I thought Messi would be a factor, but their defense was practically no defense.

Group E (predicted): Brazil, Switzerland; (actual): Brazil, Switzerland

Group F (predicted): Germany, Mexico; (actual): Sweden, Mexico

Well, what can I say. I at least got the second position right!

Group G (predicted): Belgium, England; (actual): Belgium, England

Group H (predicted): Colombia, Senegal; (actual): Colombia, Japan

So, as you can see, overall I did pretty OK with my predictions. Now let's come down to the knockouts that begin with the Round of 16.

Argentina vs. France

Winner: Argentina.

Yes I am going against convention and form, but Argentina has got out of a pressure cooker situation and I believe they have enough in the tank to shock France, who has looked pedestrian even in their victories.

Uruguay vs. Portugal

Winner: Portugal

One man cannot win you the trophy, but if that one man is Christiano Ronaldo, he already has the Euro in his pocket. He is playing well, and his team is responding. Uruguay has not conceded any goal so far in so many matches, so this might come down to a magic moment. Or penalty kicks.

Brazil vs. Mexico

Winner: Brazil

Mexico's 32 year old curse of being knocked out in the first stage of the knock outs will continue. Brazil simply has too much class and talent to be pipped at the post by Mexico.

Belgium vs. Japan

Winner: Japan

I would like to say "Thank you Japan, for coming. Please go back to making Toyotas and Hondas".  But I think Japan has a ridiculous talent as a team for seeing the big picture and not panicking, and being ultra cool about it. I know Belgium is super talented, but sometimes you need luck and discipline. I think Japan might just, might just, pull off the upset here.

Spain vs. Russia

Winner: Spain

Russia's merry adventure will come to a screeching holt. They faced ONE quality team and were blown away. Now they will face Spain.

Croatia vs. Denmark

Winner: Croatia

This is pretty hard to call as both teams boast excellent talent, rigorous discipline and a similar style of play. Croatia just has the extra oomph in their mid field.

Sweden vs. Switzerland

Winner: Sweden

Boring game. Who cares. Probably 1-0 or 0-0 to penalty kicks.

Colombia vs. England

Winner: England

Haha. You gotta hand it to England. They lost so they could win. Be a Baazigar. Let's see if it works out for them. They tried the same thing last Euros and got knocked out by Iceland. This time though, England look to be good. Very good.

World Cup 2018 - Group Stage Predictions

Group A: (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Uruguay)

Host countries usually do well in the World Cup. Even USA got out of the group (with a surprise, and later tragic, win over Columbia) in 1994. Remember Korea's magical run in 2002, and Japan qualifying for the second stage as well? However I don't expect Russia to repeat those feats. Uruguay will easily top this group, but expect Egypt's Mo Salah to carry them through. Maybe it's my romanticism of being a Salah fan, but I don't think Russia has it.

My picks for this group: Uruguay, Egypt.

Group B: (Portugal, Spain, Morocco, Iran)

This is almost a no contest. Portugal are the Euro 2016 champions. They still have Ronaldo. Spain - despite being a pain to watch - are still Spain. Iran, Morocco - thank you for coming. Hope you enjoyed the goal fest. Have a safe trip home.

My picks for this group: Portugal, Spain.

Group C: (France, Australia, Peru, Denmark)

It’s hard to look past a strong Danish side with an on-song Christian Eriksen, but Peru are ranked 11th, ahead of Denmark. Yes, football rankings are a bit hit and miss, but Peru had a great qualifying campaign. Australia are no slouches, but they don't have the pedigree in soccer they have in other sports. They always manage to give a good fight and then lose. Cahill or no Cahill. France will blow everyone away in this group.

My picks for this group: France, Peru.

Group D: (Argentina, Iceland, Croatia, Nigeria)

I actually expect Argentina to win it all again this year (and hopefully in a final against Germany), so will pick them to top this group (and also, Messi). The second place is a harder pick. The young Croatia squad is a strong one, while Nigeria is also no slacker. It’s hard to see Iceland getting much out of this group. Their dream ends here. Croatia vs Nigeria will decide the 2nd place, and I expect Croatia to win it. With probably a disputed penalty in the 90th minute.

My picks for this group: Argentina, Croatia.

Group E: (Brazil, Switzerland, Costa Rica, Serbia)

Well, Brazil, despite the painful memory of 7-1 against Germany, is still Brazil, so expect them to top this group. The question is who will join them. Costa Rica may have done us all a favour by denying the Americans a World Cup place, but I don't see them repeating their 2014 heroics. Serbia hasn't been a power for so long, so it has to be the Swiss.

My picks for this group: Brazil, Switzerland.

Group F: (Germany, Mexico, Sweden, Korea)

They say football is a game of 22 players kicking a ball and in the end, the Germans win. So expect the defending champions to get out of their group in pole position, but they won't have it easy. All the other three sides are equally competent and would have gotten out of the group had they been in ANY other group. What a waste! I would have to pick either Mexico or Sweden, and I think it has to be Mexico for their firepower up front.

My picks for this group: Germany, Mexico.

Group G: (Belgium, Panama, Tunisia, England)

This should be a straight forward campaign for England to get out of their group. Should be. Then again, this is England. Expect Belgium to top the group, and the English to huff and puff their way into second place. The heart wants Tunisia to qualify, but it probably won't happen.

My picks for this group: Belgium, England.

Group H: (Poland, Senegal, Colombia, Japan)

This is the hardest group to pick. Any one could beat anyone. Who cares though? None of them are strong enough to win the Cup. But they can all win their group. I would have to go with the flair of Senegal and the hardwork of Colombia.

My picks for this group: Colombia, Senegal.

Cricket World Cup 2015 Predictions

So another Cricket World Cup is upon us, starting on Valentine's Day Feb 14, 2015, and ending on March 29, 2015. Since cricket is my favourite sport, here's my predictions of the group stage.

POOL A
England, Australia, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, New Zealand, Afghanistan and Scotland

It's quite hard to see anyone other than England, Australia, Sri Lanka and New Zealand qualifying out of this pool - the only interest will be the order of the qualifiers, and whether Bangladesh will manage to lose to Afghanistan or Scotland.

Australia should top this pool. They are - well, they are Australia. They are in good form lately, have won all of their most recent matches and the only concern seem to be Clarke - their captain. Australia has genuine World Cup pedigree, and they are on home soil.

New Zealand should come second in the group. They have batsmen who are in form (actually, in dangerous form), bowlers who bowl with genuine pace and are led by a captain who's probably the best captain in the world at the moment. Expect their batsmen to run up tall scores and their bowlers to pummel the opposition. However, I think Australia has a hold over New Zealand, and will thus beat them in the group match to take the No.1 position in this pool.

Sri Lanka will come in third. They are a bit top heavy, and reliant heavily on a trio of experienced players who may find this World Cup one too many. I am all in favour of having experienced folk play in these high pressure tournaments, but Sri Lanka's younger batsmen have to chip in too, and they are not. Their bowling seems to be missing a genuine threat (see the way Zimbabwe defeated them in the warm up). They will lose to Australia and New Zealand, but will still beat England, so they will come out third.

England will make up the final qualifier out of this group. Their captain is out of form, they have a team of hit and miss players, they play in a more orthodox fashion when the rest of the world has embraced flair, and frankly, England are a boring team. They still have enough quality to outclass the Associates (and Bangladesh), but will lose to the others.

Bangladesh - well, what can I say about my team of no hopers. Frankly, they are the most useless Test team at the moment and I won't be shocked if they manage to lose ALL of their matches. Bowlers are out of form, batsman are out of form - and this seems to be an on going issue. See what I wrote about them in 2004.

Wow. B'desh has won a cricket match. Finally! Yes, it was against Hong Kong, yes, they are amateurs, and yes, we could only score around 220 for 9. But what the hell, we ... BLOODY... WON!!!
 
Ofcourse the commentators were all praising Hong Kong's pluck, but me thinks sometimes B'desh is underestimated. They are good, just not good enough to knock off the bigger powers, but definitely there ahead of the non-test, and definitely now Zim and Windies are on the same rung. Here's hoping they do tonite to Pak what they way back did in 1999. Ah, one can always dream.

It seems, 11 years on, nothing has changed.

Afghanistan and Scotland make up the pool, and while they have enough pluck, they will need a lot of luck to knock out any of the top 4. For them, a victory or two will be enough to have a good World Cup.

POOL B
South Africa, West Indies, India, Pakistan, Zimbabwe, Ireland, United Arab Emirates

Now this is the more exiting pool. I can genuinely see South Africa, India and Pakistan easily qualify. The fourth team is going to be interesting. While it seems more or less likely that West Indies will make it, their unpredictability, and the strong performances of Ireland and Zimbabwe in recent times, might point to a shock.

South Africa should top the pool. And when I say should, I mean they probably will. Remember, they only start chocking once the group stages are done. They have batsmen in form, the world's best fast bowler and a dynamic fielding team. The pitches in Australia and New Zealand should suit their style of play. However, they won't win ALL of their matches.

This is an interesting pool because of Pakistan as well. They are completely unpredictable, but they are my dark horses for this tournament. I fully expect Pakistan to beat South Africa, and perhaps India, simply because Misbah is a good captain and Afridi seems to be on fire lately, and they have a decent team. So Pakistan will come in second in the group.

India should qualify third. They have been woefully out of form in Australia, and Rohit Sharma has scored his mandatory big score in between several small ones, and their main batting star is out of form. They will beat all the Associates and West Indies.

West Indies should make the fourth playoff position, but barely. They have the class and quality to beat anyone on their 'day', but their 'day's seem to be getting less and less frequent. They will be lucky to just hold off Ireland and Zimbabwe.

For Ireland and Zimbabwe, the games against each other and the ones against West Indies will be the ones they believe they can win. It will be an upset, but not that much of a shock, if one of them manages to qualify for the group stages in place of West Indies.

UAE - why are you even here?

QUARTER FINALS LINE UP

South Africa vs. England

Pakistan vs. Sri Lanka

India vs. New Zealand

West Indies vs. Australia